Experts in public health say the chances of a third wave hitting India are slim, unless it is caused by a new Covid variant. And a deep dive into the available data confirms the optimism, at least for now.
After Delta wreaked havoc earlier this year, the country has yet to encounter a new lineage of the new coronavirus.
When an infectious disease spreads rapidly, it is called a wave. Since August-September 2020, India has been hit by two waves, the first in August-September of 2020, and the second in March of 2019.
Professor Manindra Agrawal of Kanpur’s IIT says that if there isn’t a mutation that spreads more quickly, the third wave will be a ripple.”
In collaboration with two other experts, Prof Agrawal created the SUTRA model, which tracks the progression of Covid-19 in India. If you’re unfamiliar with the acronym, SUTRA stands for Susceptible Undetected Testing Removing.
A large number of undiagnosed asymptomatic patients is explicitly taken into account in the model, according to the authors. In addition, a parameter called “reach” is used to account for the spatial spread of a pandemic in the future.
MEASURES STILL HAS TO BE TAKEN
One expert assessment is supported by a study conducted by India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit.
In April-May 2024, the test positivity rate (TPR), a key indicator of how widespread the transmission is, rose above 20%, according to the DIU’s analysis, but has since dropped to around 2.5%.
In accordance with WHO guidelines, a TPR of less than five for a sustained period of time means that the transmission is much more difficult. It’s been two weeks since the TPR was introduced in India.
